As a fiction writer, (actually, action, sex and satire) you should take my “predictions with a grain of salt. That said there are REAL lessons in Brexit for the USA.
There’s little doubt in my mind that the US federal government is going to collapse.
First, though, let’s look at Brexit. Much of the “customs union” bullshit ignores the real victim in Brexit. Northern Ireland.
Without getting into too much history, the Catholic Republican of Ireland split from England in 1922. In this split, England retained the north. About three quarters of the Irish people live in the south. (At least, those that didn’t move to Boston)
Today, the Catholic Republic of Ireland is one of the richest per-capita countries in the world. Their per-capita GDP is not only double Northern Ireland, it’s $35,000 per person higher than England.
Catholic Ireland is one of the world’s most conservative western countries.
It leads in almost every category. Regular church attendance, out of wedlock births, poverty, energy use, health care, the list goes on and on. 80% of the Republics schools are Catholic, yet Ireland is considered one of Europe’s freest countries. They maintain military and political neutrality and their laws make it near impossible to go to war.
British Northern Ireland is a basket case.
Poverty rates are very high. In fact, Northern Ireland is very much a welfare state.
The Republic of Ireland has no intention of leaving the European Union. But Brexit would force them to change or renegotiate their trade deals with the north, largely because the EU will not allow England post Brexit to use Northern Ireland as a back door to free trade with the EU.
This will create a de-facto blockade across the Irish Sea. In fact, this was Angela Merkel’s bone with Boris Johnson that caused so much Vitriol with the Brexiteers.
What does this have to do with the USA?
National divorces are no different than real divorces. You argue over who gets the stuff and who gets the bills. In this breakup, who wants Northern Ireland? Short answer, nobody.
In the USA, it doesn’t even have to be a breakup that creates a civil war. A bankruptcy of the federal government (which is a near certainty) forces the federal government to exercise its taxing authority over the states.
In other words, who gets the debt and who gets the stuff. High GDP states like Texas are not going to agree with high federal taxes to pay California’s welfare bills. To make matters worse for Texas, they’re surrounded by states that have huge welfare burdens and low per capita GDP. States like Alabama, Louisiana and Arkansas.
These states aren’t all that different from Northern Ireland.
They have enormous levels of out of wedlock births, and some of America’s highest rates of poverty, obesity and crime. If the US federal government raises taxes, as virtually ALL democrat politicians are advocating, what will the states do?
California and New York already have very high rates of emigration out of their states and to states with lower taxes. These states have tried to step the tide with more state government invasions, dubious accounting, hidden taxes like legal gambling and massive government borrowing.
There’s also the effect I like to call “brain drain.”
Universities are not places that money flows from. Money flows TO universities. They’re charities. If you’ve ever been to Boston, you know what I’m saying. Boston has a staggering number of students from all over the world.
These Brainiac’s come to be in places like Harvard, MIT and Tufts, as well as smaller private colleges like Mount Holyoke, Wellesley, Williams and Amherst. Contrary to the image of “white supremacy” these colleges are some of the most diverse institutions in the world. The students and professors have a work ethic most people can’t imagine.
When these students graduate, are they going to go back to Lafayette Louisiana, Karachi, Dublin, Mumbai or Budapest?
Fat chance. They’re going to go where salaries are high. Boston, London, Singapore, Dallas and a dozen cities in Germany. The money will and has already followed them. How can the USA maintain itself as a nation, when it’s just a collection of rich cities surrounded by waste land?
The federal government couldn’t even provide safe drinking water for Flint Michigan, a protective border for California or drug crime protection in Chicago and they’re going to bail out entire states?
Politics is Like Playing Chess on Acid
What will the USA do when they must decide whether they should keep or toss out a burden like the UK has to decide with Northern Ireland?
This is the million-dollar, or better yet, million-pound question.
England has a long history of kicking its “allies” to the curb. The US doesn’t have that history. This has all the makings of civil wars.
Geeks Note: One of my favorite mental exercises I like to refer to as “exorcising the demons of evolution.
Humans have certain embedded traits. They’re not things we learn. They’re “instincts”, much like a bird’s instinct to fly.
There are dozens which I won’t get into, but one is called “nesting.” Nesting in humans is an instinct we evolved with that caused us to protect our nests. (Caves, homes, Teepee’s, RV’s) We don’t realize we’re doing it, but it’s there, like a curse.
It causes us to believe that our home is “safe” and everyone else’s is going to fall to pieces. We defend “home”, not just physically, but intellectually. I have little doubt that very few people believe the US federal government will go under. In fact, believing it is not that different from an organ transplant of trying to learn a foreign language.
The body will automatically reject it.